Even if (a big if) the forecast turns out to be accurate, multiple other factors could play spoilsport for agriculture.
The India Meteorological Department last week forecast that the country is likely to witness an “above normal” southwest monsoon, receiving around 105% of the long-period average rainfall. This is generally seen as a positive signal for the agriculture sector, but there are many reasons why it may not necessarily be one.
For starters, the IMD has a poor track record when it comes to the accuracy of its long-term monsoon rainfall forecasts. Also, it doesn’t take into account details that are crucial for the health of crops—the spatial and temporal distribution of the rainfall during the season.
The spatial distribution …
Sethu writes on all things technology at The Morning Context. He previously worked as a senior sub-editor at Indian Express.
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