It’s far too soon to hail a rural recovery

It’s been a bad spell of news for the Indian economy. First the slowdown of 2019, one of the worst in decades. And in this year, the COVID-19 pandemic that has taken a hammer to businesses and livelihoods across the world.

Over the past month or so, though, some industry leaders have proclaimed that a recent uptick in indicators such as tractor sales as a sign of imagined growth in the agricultural sector, a harbinger of better times for rural India—“Bharat”—and all of the country. However, the economic linkages of adjacent and allied sectors are more complex, and we really …


Gaurangi Agarwal

Gaurangi is an applied economist whose interest is identifying patterns in the economy and what people say about it. Having worked as a quantitative economist in evidence-based policy design, she usually won't believe you if it didn't come from a well-conducted survey or the Bible.