COVID-19 isn't quite retail’s demonetization moment

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Editor's note: As mom-and-pop neighbourhood stores scaled down over the past few weeks and white-collar workers began working from homes, organized retail—from e-commerce to brick-and-mortar chains—has seen booming demand. Now that India has entered a nationwide lockdown and inter- and intra-city transportation has ground to a halt, the consumer’s dependence on these two channels is set to increase further. We are in the middle of what has widely been construed the “demonetization moment” for organized retail, especially e-commerce. (The Indian government’s shock decision to invalidate 86% of currency in circulation in November 2016 was a turning point for digital payments companies.) But so far, it’s been a story of both sizeable opportunity and frustrating hurdles. The whims of governments and local authorities across states are throwing everything into a mess, muddling the field.  But more than that, the reality of retail is that lasting change in consumption patterns is not simply a matter of a sudden shock; a post-coronavirus India will see the industry changed, both online and offline, but a revolution? Unlikely. Allow me to explain this vast and complex ecosystem …