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The central bank may be upbeat about revival of investment by Indian businesses, but the RBI’s own data and conflicting views suggest companies are scaling back spending.

Last month, India’s central bank projected that the economy would grow 7.2% in the fiscal year ending March 2025. “All indicators suggest that private capital expenditure and government spending are performing well,” Shaktikanta Das, governor of the Reserve Bank of India, said at a press conference in October. The signalling is no doubt vital. After all, private investment—a crucial part of gross domestic product (GDP), contributing almost 24%—has long lagged. Its revival, then, is a key indicator of the private sector’s faith in India’s growth story.
Except that Das seems to be talking up sentiment without a solid basis. And …